One spring evening almost a century ago, British radio news took on a somewhat anticlimactic tone, with the announcer declaring that there was no news that evening, before playing a recording of piano music for 15 minutes.

With everything going on in our world, who would have the time for that now? Investors have to worry about geopolitics and trade wars while also pondering what a possible financial correction would mean for markets that have not been purged of excess leverage since 2008. Looming over everything is the prospect of an eventual reckoning for exorbitant public debts worldwide, potentially through a significant bond market disruption.

In the light of this, what should we prepare for in 2025?

Instinctively, we predict the future by extrapolating trends: because Donald Trump has retaken the White House, nationalism will triumph everywhere. But world history has many moving parts. What happens in one place doesn’t always snowball; it can also mobilize balancing forces.

A more transactional U.S. will instead encourage the rest of the West to stick closer together, protecting a multilateral order that allows them to thrive. In 2025, populists are likely to lose the Czech parliamentary and Polish presidential elections to centrists. In Germany, the Christian Democrats will probably win and restore direction to the European project. As inflation and interest rates keep coming down, the generalized anxiety of voters might ease. Perhaps it’s the calm after the storm.

The Ukraine war will likely be frozen – not just because of Trump but also because both parties are exhausted. The terms of any settlement will be crucial, serving either as a deterrent or an invitation to further Russian aggression.

An already fractured trade system is in for a rough ride, and China, Mexico, and Europe would suffer from Trump’s proposed tariffs on U.S. imports. The International Monetary Fund warns that protectionism could shave 1.3 percent off global GDP in 2026.

America’s timing is precarious as China has pivoted back to its old export-led growth model. In a world of zealous exporters, where will demand come from? If China redirects a deluge of surplus goods to other markets, expect protectionist backlash there as well.

For China, this also comes on top of a property crisis and demographic decline. An escalating trade conflict would impose further economic strain and prompt serious questions about why the country has not done more to transition to a consumption-based economic model a long time ago.

But cheer up – it might never happen. Most of the damage from a trade war comes not from the initial shots but the successive rounds of retaliation. A comprehensive deal, perhaps involving European purchases of liquified natural gas (LNG) from America and mutual tariff reductions, might placate the U.S. dealmaker-in-chief.

China might strike an agreement, too. It is often overlooked, but Trump is less of a China hawk than most Americans. His grievances are primarily trade-related and do not imply an existential rivalry between opposing systems. Moreover, Trump is restrained by his favorite barometer: the stock market.

Even so, some U.S. tariffs combined with massive budget deficits and a tighter labor market (due to deportations) would drive up interest rates and the dollar. This won’t help the U.S. trade balance – or countries with dollar-denominated debt. Further technological U.S./China decoupling will present dilemmas for businesses globally.

But if you think this means globalization is dead, I have a dozen old business headlines to sell you. Globalization was also declared as dying after the dot-com crash, 9/11, the Great Recession, Brexit, Trump I, the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Yet, as a Bond villain might say, globalization has “a nasty habit of surviving.”

Politicians bicker over a shrinking share of world trade – the kind where countries manufacture entire products – but globalization is rapidly expanding in technology, digital services, intellectual property and workplace integration. Artificial intelligence will accelerate it further.

In 2025, AI adoption must begin converging with grandiose investor expectations. While reports suggest slow uptake, my sense is that workers are using AI much more than they admit to pollsters (or bosses). And this is just the beginning.

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, predicts we will reach artificial general intelligence by 2025. That might be hyperbole, but people developing new AI models tell me they experience “wow” moments almost daily. One confided that he fears public reaction when the next generation of AI capabilities is revealed. Expect substantial productivity gains.

Amid all this, don’t lose sight of the long-term. The past 25 years were marked by crises, wars, terrorism and a pandemic. Yet, these horrible 25 years were also the best in human history. Global GDP per capita increased by over a third, global poverty declined by 130,000 people daily and child mortality halved.

As long as businesses and innovators retain the freedom to adapt and respond to shocks, the world will continue to progress. Perhaps we can still take the time to enjoy some piano music, even in 2025.

The views expressed in this publication are the personal views of Johan Norberg and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EQT AB group ("EQT") itself or any investment professional at EQT.